In the Northern Hemisphere, Fall officially begins today at 5:19pm. People keep asking me “Why does the equinox date change every year?” Well, it doesn’t change EVERY year (last year it was on September 22nd too), but it had changed in various years. The change in date is due to our calendar system. We have what is called a Gregorian Calendar, which has 365 days a year, or 366 days in a leap year. The actual equinox occurs 6 hours later each year, so the date of the calendar runs accordingly. During a leap year, we usually jump back a year to make up the time.

Tomorrow will be the first full day of Fall and the weather will feel more like summer. YAY! Expect mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 80 degrees.

After a wonderful summer hiatus, it’s back to business. My little ones are back to school today. It’s now time for routines, school projects, playdates, and learning the ABCs. It’s also time for blogging…..

Let’s start off the back to blogging with the back to school shopping. We barely had a summer and now I’m looking at fall/winter clothes in the stores. I am not ready for sweaters and jackets. I still have tags on some of my summer dresses! If that’s not enough, I was in a store the other day that was setting up  it’s Halloween displays. Stop the madness! Turn back the weather clock! I am not ready for summer to end. Fortunately, the weather on this first day of school is fabulous. Expect sunny skies with temperatures in the 70s.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced today that an El Niño has developed  in the Pacific Ocean and will continue to do so for the next several months. Further strengthening is possible and it is expected to last through winter 2009-2010.

El Niño is the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean waters. This occurs, on average, every 2-5 years. It usually affects us in the United States during the late fall and winter by influencing the position of the jet stream.

Possible effects on the United States include:

Beneficial winter precipitation to the Southwest

Less wintry weather across the North

Reduced risk of Florida wildfires

Milder winter in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains

Increased storminess and wetter winter in the Southern States (AL, FL, GA, MS, SC, TX)

Damaging winter storms in California.

On a positive note: El Niño helps to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean.

Hands down, the most poignant moment of Michael Jackson’s Memorial Service today was from his daughter Paris. This 11-year-old sparked tears around the world by reminding us that he was a father. While millions of people mourn the loss of a musical and cultural icon, there are 3 kids who have lost the only parent they’ve ever known. During the last week and a half, my thoughts have been with Michael’s 3 children. I know the feeling of losing a famous father and to mourn in the public eye.  I know the momentary strength of speaking at one’s own father’s funeral…..not knowing what to say, but feeling compelled to say something. I know that while thousands embraced her at the memorial service, Paris just wanted to be Daddy’s Little Girl.

What a lousy month for the weather! June 2009 will go down in the record books as one of the coolest and wettest.

This June is tied for the 8th coolest on record. The average temperature in Central Park was 67.5 (3.7 degrees below normal). This also occurred in 1897. We had below average temperatures for 75% of the month….. 23 out of 30 days.

Warmest Temperature: 84 degrees on June 30th

Coolest Temperature: 50 degrees on June 1st

It was also the 2nd wettest June on record with 10.06″ of rain. The wettest June on record is 2003 with 10.27″. Rainfall was recorded in Central Park on 23 out of 30 days this month. The wettest day was June 18th with 2.30″ of rain.

Anyone looking forward to July?

The weather is going to be a BIG factor at the U.S. Open tomorrow at Bethpage State Park in Farmingdale, Long Island. Rain is in the forecast (surprise, surprise) for tomorrow and could cause a delay. The two most common reasons for a weather delay at a golf tournament are lightning and heavy rain.

Lightning is dangerous and if it is detected anywhere in the area, a horn is sounded and the course is cleared. Rain, on other hand, doesn’t always stop a tournament. It must be raining hard enough to cause standing water on the greens and/or fairway to warrent a delay or suspension. That is possible tomorrow.

High winds don’t typically cause a delay, but can be problematic for the players. Tomorrow’s wind speeds will be between 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. That will probably affect the players’ performances.

More rain, and thunderstorms, are in the forecast for Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised if this year’s tournament is extended into next week.

One of my esteemed colleagues has jumped on the blogging bandwagon. He calls his blog “Blog or Bust.” In the weather world, we use the term “bust” for a forecast gone bad. This particular forecaster is very good, so I don’t think he is refering to his weather reports. Many folks use the term when refering to a road trip. They put a sign in their car window saying something like “California or Bust.” In that sense “bust”  would imply not reaching your destination. So, if one does not blog daily (like the aforementioned weatherman), is that a “bust”? If so, then  I’m busted.

Today is the 1st day of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin. The tropics are quiet today, but we have had hurricanes in June before. The strongest June Hurricane on record happens to be Hurricane Audrey. It reached Category 4 status before making landfall on the Texas/Lousiana border on June 27, 1957. Audrey caused catastrophic damage across eastern Texas and western Louisiana. The name Audrey has been retired, but here are the names selected for this year’s season:

Ana

Bill

Claudette

Danny

Erika

Fred

Grace

Henri

Ida

Joaquin

Kate

Larry

Mindy

Nicholas

Odette

Peter

Rose

Sam

Teresa

Victor

Wanda

Here is your newest member of the Twitter Nation…..My9Weather.

I started tweeting yesterday and am still trying to figure out how this all works. The plan is to keep you posted on the weather during the day.  Well today was a great day to get my Twitter feet wet…literally and figuratively. During today’s storms I was able to keep everyone posted on what to expect in their area. As each storm cell popped up the radar, I was able to track them and send out tweets to let folks know where the rain was heading. And the way all of my computers are set up in the My 9 Weather Center, I am able to forecast, track and tweet all at the same time. I love it!

Sign up at Twitter.com and follow me @My9Weather.

Today the forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said we can expect a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. This year’s outlook is being influenced by enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters, reduced wind shear, and the possible development of an El Nino in the Eastern Pacific this summer.

The predictions are:

9-14 Named Storms

4-7 Hurricanes

1-3 Major Hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, including 6 hurricanes with 2 becoming major hurricanes.

Hurricane Season begins June 1st.